bobby-hartono
The United Nations has issued a stark warning that the El Nino climate phenomenon is poised to intensify further over the coming weeks, with the World Meteorological Organization predicting it could develop into the most powerful such event recorded since at least 1950. In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, released Thursday, the WMO said the natural weather pattern is expected to reach its apex in December before gradually fading, raising the prospect of above-average temperatures across much of the planet and adding yet another layer of strain to a world already grappling with human-driven climate change.
The agency's forecast rests on a broad agreement among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres, giving the projection considerable scientific weight. According to those combined models, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to climb to unprecedented levels during the October-November-December period. That warming, the WMO cautioned, will steer weather patterns and carry consequences for economies, ecosystems and communities in every corner of the globe.
El Nino works by warming the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, setting off a chain reaction that alters winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall far beyond the tropics. The phenomenon typically recurs every two to seven years and generally persists for nine to 12 months, alternating with its mirror image, La Nina, with periods of neutral conditions in between. While that cycle is entirely natural, scientists stress that its impacts are now playing out against a background of record ocean warmth caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
"El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, adding that the agency's forecasts point to a near-100 percent likelihood that the event will endure through February 2027. She stressed that El Nino does not generate new heat for the planet; rather, it redistributes thermal energy already locked away in the seas. "The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release," she explained — a point scientists say distinguishes this event from earlier episodes.
The scale of the warming has become strikingly apparent in recent months. The index used to measure sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Nino, stood at 1.6 degrees Celsius above the norm in June. By August, that gap had widened to 2.5 degrees above normal. For the October-November-December window, forecasters now expect the anomaly to reach roughly 3.7 degrees Celsius, which would shatter the previous record of 2.6 degrees set during the 2015-2016 event and eclipse every observation on record.
Those numbers matter far beyond the world of climate science. The last major El Nino helped push 2023 to become the second-hottest year ever registered, while 2024 took the top spot at approximately 1.55 degrees above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. A stronger warming pulse arriving now could compound that trend, even though El Nino typically reaches its peak between November and February and the resulting surge in global temperatures tends to show up somewhat later.
Regional impacts are already being felt. Central America has been particularly hard hit, with drought conditions killing livestock and destroying crops across the region. Panama and El Salvador have been forced to declare national emergencies over the drought fuelled by the phenomenon, underlining how quickly water shortages can escalate into a political and humanitarian crisis. Elsewhere, the shifting climate patterns have contributed to an unusual train of cyclones marching across the Pacific, an event meteorologists described as rare and historic.
The warnings extend to areas far from the tropics. A file photograph released alongside the report showed a barge stranded on the dry riverbed of the Kapuas River in West Kalimantan, Indonesia — a vivid illustration of how disrupted rainfall can paralyse river-dependent communities and the commerce they rely on. Meanwhile, other parts of the world face the opposite hazard: the WMO noted that El Nino's redistribution of moisture will shift rainfall patterns in ways that heighten the risk of both drought and floods in different regions.
For governments and relief agencies, the message is that preparation cannot wait for December. Because the temperature peak typically lags behind the oceanic peak, the full strain on energy systems, agriculture and water supplies may not become clear until well into 2027. The WMO's call, then, is for nations to treat the forecast as an early-warning signal — one that allows time to shore up food reserves, manage water resources and protect the most vulnerable populations before the worst arrives.
Comments (0)