Global Realignments Accelerate as Transactional US Foreign Policy Weakens Historic Alliances

A profound and structural transformation is currently reshaping the foundations of American foreign policy, driving long-standing allies to fundamentally reconsider their international partnerships. According to author and foreign affairs analyst Anne Applebaum, the United States is orchestrating a departure from its traditional role as the vanguard of a rules-based democratic alliance, pivoting instead toward a distinctly transactional and aggressive approach to global relations.

Speaking with host François Picard on France 24, Applebaum, a staff writer at The Atlantic and author of "Autocracy, Inc.," argued that this diplomatic upheaval cannot be viewed merely as the temporary posture of a single political administration. Instead, she outlined a comprehensive systemic transformation in how the American government exerts power internationally, replacing multilateral consensus with an unpredictable, high-pressure negotiating style.

In Applebaum's assessment, this emerging framework operates akin to mafia-style politics. Within this operational model, ideological objectives, personal connections, private financial interests, and strategic geopolitical leverage are tightly bound together. The resulting foreign policy leaves traditional bilateral compacts subordinated to immediate, self-serving arrangements that disregard long-standing diplomatic norms.

The global ripple effects of this strategic pivot are already materializing across North America. Canada, which has historically maintained one of the world’s closest and most integrated partnerships with the United States, has begun making decisive structural adjustments. In response to rising unpredictability in Washington, Canadian leadership has actively stepped forward to insulate the nation's political and economic future.

Under Carney, Canada is aggressively working to lessen its multi-decade reliance on the United States. Rather than resting within the traditional security and trade arrangements that long defined North American affairs, Canadian policymakers are actively cultivating stronger, deeper economic and strategic ties with alternative global powers, including the European Union, India, and China.

This diversification highlights an abrupt end to the era of comfortable reliance between the two neighboring countries. Facing volatile pressure from Washington, Ottawa has been compelled to recognize that over-dependence on a single partner poses significant strategic vulnerabilities, prompting deliberate outreach to major economies across Europe and Asia to distribute risk.

The disruption is equally pronounced across the Atlantic. European administrations are finding themselves forced to navigate an increasingly adversarial and volatile dynamic with an ally they once regarded as their primary defense guarantor. The erosion of established assumptions has left European capitals scrambling to manage security uncertainties and direct economic disputes.

At the same time, the hardline, populist, and increasingly autocratic governing model favored in Washington is creating fresh political alignments across the globe. Far-right and nationalist organizations in diverse countries are discovering ideological common ground with the current American trajectory, leveraging Washington's rhetoric to bolster their domestic standing.

Confronted by an impulsive and confrontational partner, governments worldwide are quietly taking defensive measures. Beyond mere political rhetoric, states are actively exploring new multilateral arrangements, alternate security frameworks, and fresh trade pacts designed to bypass Washington entirely and safeguard their domestic interests against sudden policy swings.

What makes this transformation particularly pivotal, according to Applebaum, is the simultaneous emergence of a revolution and a subsequent counter-revolution. While the Trumpian political paradigm has attracted admirers and imitators internationally, it has simultaneously provoked fierce, organized pushback from democratic states seeking stability.

As international confidence in American dependability rapidly deteriorates, sovereign nations are no longer waiting for domestic political recalibrations in Washington. Instead, governments are enacting long-term hedging strategies, systematically diversifying their international portfolios and preparing for an era in which the United States is no longer the central pillar of international stability.

This systemic dispersion of influence represents a stark departure from the foundational vision behind "America First" policies. While initially promoted by Donald Trump as a method to aggressively reassert national leverage and compel global deference, the actual execution of the policy is producing precisely the opposite geopolitical outcome.

Applebaum emphasized that international observers are witnessing more than just an internal evolution of American democracy and its foreign policy doctrines. The broader reality is the accelerating formation of a transformed global order in which Washington occupies a significantly diminished and increasingly contested position.

The strategic irony of this isolationist trajectory is profound and unmistakable. In attempting to force the international community to bow before assertions of American exceptionalism and unilateral authority, the United States has instead motivated the rest of the world to construct the exact mechanisms, partnerships, and institutions required to operate without it.