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Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has picked up the support of two prominent right-wing figures who were defeated in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, a development that could reshape the political landscape ahead of the runoff vote later this month. Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, both of whom ran against Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s first-round ballot, announced their endorsements on Monday. Their decision to rally behind the senator signals an effort by Brazil’s right-wing forces to consolidate behind a single candidate in the second round against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The endorsements came during an appearance on FRANCE 24’s current affairs program “A propos,” where host Sharon Gaffney interviewed Anthony Pereira, Executive Director of the Stone Center for Latin American Studies at Tulane University. Pereira offered a sober assessment of the runoff dynamics, suggesting that the advantage currently tilts toward Flavio Bolsonaro rather than the incumbent president. His analysis points to a challenging road ahead for Lula, who must find a way to expand his coalition in a deeply polarized political environment.
According to Pereira, Lula’s most viable strategy for securing a second term involves reaching out to the millions of Brazilians who abstained from voting in the first round. However, the academic cautioned that this approach is far from guaranteed. Mobilizing non-voters is notoriously difficult, and there is no certainty that those who sat out the first round would break in Lula’s favor if they did participate. The challenge is compounded by the fact that many of these voters may be disengaged from politics altogether, making them a unreliable reservoir of support.
By contrast, Pereira argued that Flavio Bolsonaro is likely to benefit from a more straightforward path to victory. Voters who backed other right-wing candidates in the first round are expected to migrate naturally to the Bolsonaro camp in the runoff, rather than switching allegiance to Lula or abstaining. This dynamic, Pereira suggested, makes the second round “look a lot easier for Flavio to win” than for the incumbent president. The endorsements from Caiado and Zema are an early indication that this consolidation is already underway.
The first-round result itself reflects a broader political shift that has been underway in Brazil for years. The headline of the FRANCE 24 segment captured this succinctly: Brazil “has moved to the right progressively over the last two decades,” according to Pereira. This observation challenges the conventional narrative that Brazilian politics is defined solely by the left-right rivalry between Lula’s Workers’ Party and the Bolsonaro family’s brand of conservatism. Instead, it points to a gradual, structural realignment of the electorate that predates the current election cycle.
Pereira’s comments underscore the extent to which Brazilian voters have drifted toward right-leaning positions on issues such as crime, economic policy, and traditional values. This shift has not been sudden or dramatic, but rather a steady evolution over multiple election cycles. The rise of Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency in 2018 was a visible manifestation of this trend, but the underlying movement began earlier and has continued to shape Brazilian politics since. Understanding this long-term trajectory is essential to interpreting the current runoff battle.
The fact that Flavio Bolsonaro, rather than a more established centrist or left-wing figure, is competing in the runoff is itself a testament to the strength of the right in contemporary Brazil. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, remains a polarizing but influential figure in Brazilian politics, and his family’s political brand has proven durable despite legal and political controversies. The endorsements from Caiado and Zema, both of whom are experienced governors with their own political bases, lend additional credibility and organizational muscle to Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign.
For Lula, the runoff represents a moment of reckoning. Having already served two terms as president before returning to office, he now faces an electorate that is more skeptical of his party’s traditional message than at any point in recent memory. His path to victory hinges on his ability to energize the base that supported him in the past while simultaneously appealing to voters who may have drifted away. The first-round results suggest that this will be no easy task.
The expert’s analysis also highlights the importance of voter turnout in the runoff. In many democracies, runoff elections see a decline in participation compared to the first round, as the sense of urgency diminishes and some voters feel their preferred candidate has already been eliminated. In Brazil’s case, however, the stakes could hardly be higher, with two starkly different visions for the country’s future on the ballot. Whether voters who abstained in the first round can be persuaded to participate will be a decisive factor.
Pereira’s remarks also carry implications for the broader region. Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a bellwether for political trends across the continent. If Flavio Bolsonaro prevails, it would cement the right’s hold on Brazilian politics and potentially inspire similar movements elsewhere. Conversely, a Lula victory would demonstrate that left-wing parties can still compete effectively in a political environment that has shifted rightward over the past twenty years. Either outcome would have ripple effects beyond Brazil’s borders.
The endorsements from Caiado and Zema are a reminder that Brazilian politics remains a game of coalitions and alliances, even in an era of intense polarization. Both men have their own constituencies and policy priorities, and their decision to back Flavio Bolsonaro suggests that they see him as the most viable vehicle for advancing a right-wing agenda. In exchange for their support, they may expect a role in shaping policy or governance if Flavio Bolsonaro wins the runoff.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the candidates will be under intense scrutiny. Flavio Bolsonaro will need to demonstrate that he can broaden his appeal beyond the right-wing base that carried him through the first round. Lula, meanwhile, will need to make the case that his experience and vision are what Brazil needs to navigate the challenges ahead. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining which of these two narratives resonates with the Brazilian electorate.
The runoff is scheduled for later this month, and early signs suggest that the contest will be closely fought. With Flavio Bolsonaro gaining momentum from the endorsements and Lula scrambling to mobilize non-voters, the outcome remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Brazil’s political landscape has shifted significantly over the past two decades, and the result of this election will shape the country’s direction for years to come.
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