Addis Ababa Blames Foreign Backing as Tigray Rebels Advance in Afar

Ethiopia's military leadership has publicly blamed Eritrea and Sudan for arming and supplying rebel forces operating inside the country, accusing both neighbouring states of turning the Horn of Africa into a proxy theatre as fighting in Tigray and the Afar region escalates. Army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula made the accusation in a video posted on the military's YouTube channel, framing the rebel movement as a proxy for outside interests rather than a purely domestic insurgency.

In the statement, Jula said federal troops are "fighting forces that are organised and allied to serve the interests of external forces." He went further, arguing that neither Eritrea's forces — which he referred to by the nickname Shaebia — nor the Tigray People's Liberation Front could achieve anything on their own, even if the two were allied, "unless they are backed, supported and supplied by Sudan, Egypt and other external powers." The speech amounts to the government's most direct public claim yet that the renewed insurgency is being sustained from abroad.

On the ground, the Tigray People's Liberation Front said it is waging a "defensive war" against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and has seized airports while launching attacks into the neighbouring Amhara region. A humanitarian source told reporters that the town of Erebti, in Afar near the Tigray border, fell to the rebels on Sunday after being pounded with heavy artillery. The same source said the TPLF was pushing onward toward the town of Afdeera, roughly 100 kilometres to the east.

Civilian tolls are mounting alongside the territorial gains. The humanitarian source estimated that at least 150,000 people have been displaced within Afar, while cautioning that precise figures were impossible to establish. The fighting has also spread into a strategic corridor: the TPLF appears to be repeating the playbook of the last war, pushing south through Amhara in a bid to reach the capital, while its offensive in Afar appears designed to sever the supply lines running from Djibouti, which handles almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel.

Media restrictions have tightened in parallel with the fighting. The headquarters of Tigrai TV, considered the principal outlet of the rebel authorities in the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle, was struck by a drone on Sunday. A journalist at the station described hearing a loud bang from a drone strike elsewhere in the compound before the staff fled the building. Photographs taken by a local journalist showed the building's facade blackened and damaged, with numerous windows blown out by the blast. Another journalist said the station, which employs around 400 people, went off air following the attack; no casualty figures were immediately available, and the channel itself did not comment.

The attack came a week after Addis Ababa announced on September 21 that Tigrai TV had been suspended "indefinitely" and that other outlets were barred from rebroadcasting its reports. The move means the station is now both censored and physically damaged, complicating efforts by residents and international observers to verify what is happening on the ground.

Information blackout

Reporting on the conflict has been made still harder by a communications blackout. Telephone and internet services in Tigray have been severely disrupted since Friday, according to telecoms providers, limiting the ability of journalists and aid workers to contact sources. Many residents fear a repeat of the blockade imposed by the federal government during the 2020-2022 war, when electricity, banking services and nearly all humanitarian aid were cut off, stranding populations and starving communities dependent on assistance.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres raised the alarm on Friday, with a spokesman saying he was "particularly troubled by reports of the use of drones as well as incidents of harm to civilians." The comments suggest growing international concern that the renewed fighting will produce a fresh humanitarian emergency before the United Nations has the access required to respond.

The balance of military power remains firmly with the federal government, which commands a large arsenal of drones, roughly 500,000 troops, and external backing notably from the United Arab Emirates. Analysts note that drone strikes have become the signature weapon of the campaign: federal forces have carried out repeated strikes in Tigray in recent months while massing troops along the border, a combination that gives Addis Ababa options short of a large-scale ground offensive — but only if lines of communication and supply hold.

Eritrea's position adds a dangerous dimension. Landlocked Ethiopia's long-term strategic ambition has included gaining direct access to the Red Sea, and the prospect of an Ethiopian drive to the coast is a core Eritrean fear. That shared interest could pull Eritrea further into the conflict on the side of the rebels, widening a confrontation that has so far been contained within Ethiopia's borders and its immediate neighbourhood.

Historical roots

The rebellion is rooted in a decisive political reversal. The TPLF ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when Abiy Ahmed's rise to the prime minister's office sidelined the party that had dominated the country for nearly three decades. The subsequent civil war was marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence, and left an estimated 600,000 people dead.

A fragile peace followed. The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, held the country in an uneasy calm that lasted until last year, but was never fully implemented — leaving around one million people unable to return to their homes. Clashes then resumed sporadically, and rights groups have since accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict.

With the TPLF now aligned with seven armed groups around the country and holding captured airfields, the risk of a return to full-scale civil war is substantial. The government's drone dominance has not translated into an ability to hold the border, and the accusations of external involvement on both sides suggest the standoff may be drawing in regional powers before it can be settled.